Akihiro Iwashita

This was a great surprise for us. Although we have observed the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shaking the foundations of international norms and the global order, we could not imagine this outrageous act of assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei and other Iranian leaders. As has been widely predicted, Trump’s hopes of a short, sharp and successful conflict have yet to be realized, and the campaign promises to be an extended one, irrespective of U.S. interests. For Japan, turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil prices will only lead to sharp price increases and hardship.

Iran (Persia) originates in an ancient empire from before the Common Era, and has existed in various guises and at a crossroads of East-West civilizations, at the intersection of Mesopotamia, Rome, and the East. The presence of the Iranian nation should not just be reduced to the history of the Islamic Republic.

The United States remembers the 1979 revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini—which overthrew of the pro-American Pahlavi dynasty and established strict Islamic legal rule—and the “humiliation” of the U.S. embassy hostage crisis, which lasted for over four hundred days. Nevertheless, Iran’s presence as a regional power and security concerns over the Strait of Hormuz meant that the U.S. restrained from unilaterally deploying force against the Iranian regime. There has long been uncertainty over the effects of a U.S. war waged against Iran, and this lack of certainty is certainly visible in the current conflict.  

It is not difficult to explain the factors which led President Trump to this violent act that infringes upon Iranian sovereignty and leads to the bombing of innocent people: the damage inflicted on Iran’s defenses by airstrikes on what are believed to be “nuclear facilities” last June, the “success” of this January’s surprise attack on Venezuela, and Netanyahu’s persistent hostility against Iran and incitement of the United States (indeed, the assassination of Khamenei is said to have been Israeli-led).

Regrettably, the Japanese media focuses on topics like U.S.-Israeli military operations, the effects of the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the international and domestic impact of this on Japanese interests. Rarely do they broadcast the voices of the Iranian people: what they feel, and how they cope in this situation. Our Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and government officials have avoided offering assessments of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in terms of international norms in order to not anger President Trump. The Japan-U.S. summit in Washington D.C. on March 19, 2026, showed Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy of appeasement. Japanese newspapers widely quoted her as stating, “I firmly believe that it is only you, Donald, who can achieve peace and prosperity across the world.” There is little criticism for the flagrant violation by the United States of international norms nor condolences for the Iranian people. If European leaders had not made clear their unwillingness to engage in military cooperation with the U.S. on the eve of the summit, Japan may also have been asked to dispatch JMSDF “escort vessels” for the Straits. Thanks to their opposition, it seems that Trump did not issue a formal request, and many Japanese are relieved that the Peace Constitution limits the possibilities for any military commitment to this war.

Japan’s history of “independent” diplomacy towards the Middle East, in which energy imperatives meant it did not necessarily side with the U.S., U.K., or Israel, has been clearly demonstrated in its diplomacy with Iran. In 1953, when the British sought to blockade Iran’s overseas oil exports in order to oppose its nationalization policy, Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. sent the Nissho Maru oil tanker and succeeded in doing a deal with Iran. After the Iranian Revolution, Japan imposed formal sanctions to satisfy the U.S., but minimized them and maintained diplomatic relations with the new government, keeping its embassy open in Tehran. If U.S. pressure were to lead to Japan sending Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz under the war, it would mean a complete change in its Middle Eastern diplomacy and harm Japan’s energy security, which depends on the Middle East for over 90% of its oil.

I visited Tehran in the mid-2000s, which is when I first met Professor MohammadHassan　Khani of Imam Sadiq University. We have since been in touch for over 20 years, and have twice invited him to Hokkaido University as a lecturer. What is interesting is that Professor Khani emphasizes the centrality of “geopolitics” to understanding Iran’s situation, rather than religion or revolution. While “geopolitics” often emphasizes conflict, it contains within it various possibilities for cooperation, such as within stable supply chains. I understood his work as offering a positive and peaceful message to the world. When we only emphasize religious conflicts, there is no space for coexistence.

I spoke with Professor Khani about the current situation, and he replied as follows: “Given the U.S.’s history of malicious behavior, this act is not surprising, but they are underestimating Iranian resistance.” “The U.S. has misjudged Iran’s nationalism and patriotism as a great civilized nation.” “The vast majority of the people are united in confronting the enemy which has launched this barbaric attack.” “Peace, security, and economic prosperity are essential to the world. I hope Japan will also condemn this barbaric act and raise its voice in sympathy and solidarity with the victims.”

Considering that U.S. and Israeli actions clearly constitute a “surprise attack,” like that at Pearl Harbor, and are clear violations of international law (and this was already the case for the airstrikes undertaken last June), then Professor Khani’s remarks are persuasive. If we support the people of Ukraine invaded by Russia, then we must also stand in solidarity with the people of Iran.

                                                                  March 30, 2026

* Dr. Akihiro Iwashita is Professor of Slavic-Eurasian Research Center, Hokkaido University and Director for Research Center for Global Risk, Nagasaki University. This essay is an updated version of a piece which appeared in Japanese as the <Rondan [Forum]> Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun [Daily Kumamoto], March 22, 2026. It is the author’s personal perspective, and does not reflect the views of any institution.